By Elyas Muhammad Thumbe
The stunning result of Lok Sabha poll enforced a heavy missive to all political parties except BJP and its allies. It was like a slap on the face of a napping person. The people of this country never expected such a poll tremor. The anxiety and curiosity triumphs now among the people and the political parties as to where India will be led in the next decade. The famous proverb “those who don’t aware of history will never make history’ is aptly applicable now to opposition parties of the country. The present outcome of this parliament election wasthe impact of shelving the common sense of standing unitedly to defeat the powerful enemy and to attain the good fruit of current favorable situation during pre-election period.
Polarization of votes on religious and sensational agenda, organized methodology, committed leadership, calculated politics are mainly the factors brought a landslide victory to BJP. The reasons of humiliating defeat for Congress and its allies are crystal clear. Lack of leadership, dissidences, ego and proud of being a century old party, soft Hindutwa, false political arithmetic, lack of mastery to grasp the indication of the future of Indian politics, lack of broad vision to involve everyone in the electoral struggle are all the reasons for Congress to fell onto the ground. The stories of other parties too are the same. The ego of the supremo of Trinamul Congress, the fantasy of SP-BSP ally, immature political grasping of RJD, escaping attitude of left parties, all these contributed to the pitiable failures of those parties in the election which contributed to the turmoil in the national political sphere.
BJP captured the power in 2014 by attaining 31% vote share, now proved how its popularity mounting to the peak by rising its votes share this time to 37.5 percent. NDA’s total votes share in 2014 was 38.5% has now swell to the extent of 43.86 per cent. In the thirteen states in North India where BJP did clean sweep by winning all the seats. Though anti-incumbency factor was prevailing in the entire country due to Note ban, GST, price hike, falling economy, the BJP with all its grits and vigor implemented its every tactics and won the election. The important step it has taken was involving every parties which likes to join the NDA alliance. The relationship with Shiva Sena was though souring BJP has embraced it into its fold by just keeping an eye to win the election at any cost. BJP successfully made alliance with 22 regional parties and secured 353 seats into the fold of NDA. It has grabbedmassive seats exclusively with its own capacity in Rajasthan, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Jharkhand.
BJP this time, instead of its traditional agenda Ram Mandir and ‘Go Hathya’ just leant on Pulwama, Balakot incidents framing into grass root publicity campaign. With the slogans ‘AurEkBaarModi’, the BJP spun counter strategy by pulling over much humiliated slogan of the opposition ‘ChowkidaarChor Hai’, purified and twisted it as ‘Mai BheeChowkeedaarHoon’. It has recruited ‘Page Pramukh’ in every area and trained them in locally arranged ‘Shakthi Kendra’. In most of such ‘Shakthi Kendra’ Amith Shah and Narendra Modi visited personally and motivated the ‘page pramukhs’. These ‘Page Pramukhs’ visited door to door, met the voters personally, inculcated them about ‘AurEkBaar Modi’, about BJP and about ‘Hindu Rashtra’. Such war footed works before even the declaration of Parliamentary election have brought the BJP to such a highest position. This high position was achieved by the BJPwith begging the votes from door to door visit with much inflated and slanderous version ‘Hindu Dharma is in danger’. There will be no existence for BJP if it forsake such cunning strategies of polarization and bouncing the rightist extremism. It relentlessly activates any kind of fabrication to prove itself as it is ready to sacrifice and fight to save Hindu Dharma. The ticket given to Prajna Singh in Bhopal constituency is a part of such fabrication. When the opportunity given to Prajna Singh who was an accused in explosion and terror activities, the learned people of this country opposed it and affirmed that this is a mockery of democracy of the country, but the BJP didn’t care it and proved her victory which endorses how influential is ‘Hindutwa sentiment’ in the country.
Another important reason for the BJP’s sprint of victory is the non-unity of opposition parties. If Congress wouldn’t contest in UP by standing with SP-BSP alliance, it might have been avoided winning of 8 seats by the BJP in the state. If SP-BSP-RJD and Congress stand together for the alliance it would have won 10 seats. For such reasons BJP triumphed in Badaun, Banda, Barabanki,Basthi, Daurahara, Merut, SanthKabeer Nagar, Sultanpur etc. For all these reasons BJP achieved vote share of 49.6% this time in UP where as it was just 42.3% in 2014. In West Bengal the Trinamul Congress and Left parties alliance though they are arch rivals would have formed an alliance which could strain the BJP to win the seats in the state wherein BJP won 18 seats and Trinamul lost its 12 seats. In Maharashtra the ego and proud of the Congress party turned to be a boom to nauseating BJP. AsaduddinOwaisi’s alliance with Dr. Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash Ambedkar leading VanchithBahujanAgadhi (VBA) has won the election in Aurangabadh. This constituency was, since last 28 years won by Shivasena. Now Dalith – Muslim alliance has snatched the seat from Shiva Sena. VBA’s Prakash Ambedkar has tried to make alliance with Congress party before the election, but the ego and arrogance of the Congress party never allowed it. As the result BJP triumphed in Nanded, Osmanabad, Parbani, Gadchiroli, Akola and Solapur. Summarily, it is clear that the divisiveness, ego, arrogance, selfish power thirsty, disregarding small parties etc have contributed as much contribution to the defeat of Congress and other political parties like how the BJP’s strategies contributed to its spectacular victory.
Congress is suffering from arrogance keeping in mind that it is the authorized caretaker of secularism and democracy of this country. It is not at all taking into confidence of other national or regional political parties and at the same time the other parties too have never considered the Congress party as a trustworthy partner. Muslim League, DMK and NCP have made an alliance with Congress not because of its trustworthy but for their existence in the political arena either in the state or in the national frame. Congress always showed its arrogance with small parties. It has a history of destroying small parties and crushing its leadership. Now, the same congress is on the path of peril.
The dynastic rule, dominance of hegemonic leaders since decades, acute corruption, nepotism, pseudo secularism, soft Hindutva, shelving minority communities all these are the features of Congress party of which people of this country are well aware of it. Hence, the people squarely rejected the Congress in most part of the country. These are the reasons of the Congress to earn zeroes in 13 states. Inheritance of Nehru family is the only entitlement of Rahul Gandhi and nothing leadership skill with him. In spite of this, there is no chances of presidential post to any senior leaders in the congress. India being a biggest democratic country in the world that ruled by Congress party for more than 50 years and though there is no internal democracy within the party itself. Everything run by the order from High Command. Those ‘Chowdhuris, hegemons and influential demagogues are running ‘Darbar’ within the Congress party. They are the leaders of that party even if they are so corrupt, violent and Mafia runners.
The contributions of Uttar Pradesh in the national politics are significant. It’s a proven fact that the party which gets majority seats in UP will attain the power in the center. When Congress lost its base in UP it has lost the base in the center too. There are many reasons for this disaster. Rejection by the Muslims is one of the main reasons. When the Congress lost the vote base of Yadavs, Daliths, Jats, Rajpuths, Brahmans who were embraced other political parties like SP, BSP, Lokdal, Lok Jan Shakthi, BJP etc. the Muslims supported the Congress and saved the Congress party by voting in its favor. But, when the betrayal, cheat, denial of opportunity, authoritarianism, mock secularism from the side of Congress revealed the Muslims discarded the Congress. Till now the Congressdidn’t recover from that ghastly blow, surprisingly, yet the congress didn’t learn the lesson from this bitter facts.
There is a dangerous derision within the Congress that the Muslims anyway will vote Congress inevitably throughout the country except in UP. They don’t concern to give tickets to Muslims in view of inevitable votes from them. Now the Congress is a sinking ship and this negligent attitude is nothing but a big puncture in that ship. In addition to denial of tickets to Muslims though the constituencies are Muslim dominant constituencies, the Congress is stepping on the path of Hindutva style that competing BJP. Roaming around the temples, wearing Saffron shawls, tilak, thread, chanting the slogans of building Ram Mandir, cow worship etc are the style of Sangh that imitated by the Congress, being a mockery of secularism and dangerous version of a century old party. The Hindus identified this as a fake tactics and the Muslims found that these are the insults to their community. All these diverted and divulged steps are the reasons for the humiliating defeat of Congress party.
Alliances without Affability
In Karnataka, JDS-Congress alliance is in prevail, but the relationship is so fragile that every day is witnessed by infight, mudslinging, leg-pulling, faction following, etc. BJP has taken the benefit of this clashes stricken situation and has won amazing 25 seats out of 28. Despite issuing strengthening statements the leaders of both allied parties are going through the conflicting utterances. The egoistic statements from Congress, throwaway attitude of CM Kumaraswamy, unrestrained words from both sides have impacted untrustworthiness on the people creating mistrust about both the parties which resulted high yield to BJP. The alliance is now shocked to see such heinous defeatin the state against its high expectation of winning 22 seats. One seats each were won by these two parties. Thus, nobody has the guarantee that the alliance government will remain constant for further days.
Akhilesh&Mayawati led “Ghatbandhan” in UP was not so fruitful. On the outer view higher leadership at both parties were in close proximity, but failed to attain the trust of the leaders and workers at the grass root level and unsuccessful to transfer the votes ‘to and fro’. In West Bengal though the chances of alliance between Trinamul and Congress party was visible well before election declaration, but the culdn’t realized it because of ego and arrogance from both parties. TMC’s archrival CPM’s workers migration to BJP was a boom to BJP’s winning spree. It is nothing wrong to say that the CPM workers, unbearable to the harassment from TMC, they helped the BJP’s win as treated like ‘enemy of the enemy is friend’.
The only relaxing situation to the UPA is that the two states in South India – Kerala and Tamil Nadu in which BJP couldn’t succeed to win any seat. The main reason for this fair show is Mulsim League in Kerala and DMK in Tamil Nadu. The strong vote bases of these two parties and there was an positive atmosphere for both the parties in the state, the alliance with congress, League and DMK worked out well.
Totally, NDA has secured 43.86 percentage of votes in the country whereas the opposition votes franchised are 51.14%. Its undeniable that if the opposition parties would have formed a strong alliance either NDA or BJP couldn’t get such a vote margin. In other words, BJP couldn’t run in such a sprint speed in the spree of winning election.
Like in previous tenure, this time too there is no any political party eligible for opposition party status in the parliament. For this position, a party should win at least 10% of the total seats in the election which is not less than 55. However, Congress may generously get the opposition position in the parliament considering the basis of second highest seats won-52. In the previous term all the opposition parties including Congress Party have just passed out their invaluable time tediously without effectively opposing the bad governance of Modi regime.
Possibly, Modi government will now rule more stringently due to the estrogen of such a big victory. Sanghs Fascism, anti-democratic moves, suppression of freedom of speech, violation of human rights, backing crony capitalists will be more proactive in this regime. The opposition parties shall have all diplomacy, guts and grip in its every steps to oppose the dangerous moves of the new regime.
Nobody need not be panic about the triumph of Modi and his BJP. In India, though the central government has all power to rule the country, but the people have a powerful tool – that is our constitution. We the people attained the freedom through struggle and with the same struggle we can safeguard our invaluable freedom of the country. Let us move forward unitedly with courage and valor.
(Elyas Muhammad Thumbe is State President, Social Democratic Party of India, Karnataka State)