By Haider Abbas
Iran and Russia had been on the same page, since the last seven decades but more explicitly recently in Syria and saved the Assad regime. Iran had always been in the Soviet Bloc, it did not condemn the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and also thus, invited the double-wrath of Arab states who were paranoid of the Iranian revolution (of 1979) and it was thought that the revolution might engulf the entire Gulf region, and the Gulf-states in order to thwart it spent billions of USD, got launched a war on it by Iraq and the last 40 years of the Gulf region is that of death, mayhem, destruction and unprecedented misfortunes on its populace. But, the turn of events have made Afghan-Taliban become friends with Russia and Iran alike. US is on the verge of leaving Afghanistan after its ultimate humiliation as it had to sign a deal with the same Taliban it had fought for 19 years, as US president has announced that US soldiers would be back by Christmas, reported by Reuters on October 8, 2020.1
Russia has now announced, even while Armenia-Azerbaijan war is going-on, that it would sell its anti-missile system S-400 to Iran after the UN embargo on Iran ends on October 18, 2020, reported Al Monitor on October 5, 2020 2, as it has already supplied its S-300 to Iran. But, this news was to stir the hornets’ nest in Israel which considers itself as the sole super-power in the Gulf region. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu called Russian president Vladimir Putin a ‘happy-birthday’ and although there has been no official statement from his office, yet it goes without saying that Israel would oppose the sale of S-400 to Iran like the way it had done unsuccessfully with S-300, informed TimesofIsrael on October 7, 2020 3 . Why is Israel so sceptical to the proposal when Israel itself is a world supplier of weapons as closely back home, India and Israel even after India has been so severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, India signed a 800 crores deal with Israel weapons industries (IWI) according to JagranJosh on July 2, 2020 4
Israel is actually deterred by the thought that the days of it ‘remaining invisible’ seem to be numbered, for the way its cyber attack on Iran nuclear site in Natanz and its F-35 stealth bombers hit at missile base in Iran, as reported by TimesofIsrael on July 3, 2020 5 , had remained untraceable, will however, now get to be thwarted in future. But, here is what will leave all political pundits in jeopardy as to find out why Russia is going ahead with such a deadly deal with Iran? The answer is China! As it is China which has nudged Russia to safeguard Iran as now China is to invest 400 billion USD in military-and-trade in Iran. The lure of S-400 is such that Turkey had kicked-off US F-35, to cost US half a billion USD, according to DefenseNews.Com on July 17, 2019 6, and instead embraced S-400 from Russia, much to the heartburns in Israel and US. India too wants S-400 desperately but its own ruling party MP Subramanian Swamy has opined against buying it , informed TheWeek on July 13, 2020 7 . What is also more than surprising is that Russia has announced so even when Iran’s economy is on a shaky ground. Hence, China is clearly on a future mode, as now when S-400 would be in Iran’s arsenal, along with China’s radar system, Iran would be in a much better position to situate itself against any Israel or US joint attack which is a possibility now everyone agrees with.
Did not the Israeli defence minister Benny Gants satire that ‘not necessarily Israel is behind all Iran nuclear sites incidents’ informed Reuters in June 5, 2020 8 . Iran has also been marred by the following mystery fires which set ablaze its seven ships to be to a rubble and Iran accuses Israel to be behind it, according to Vox.Com on July 17, 2020 9 . Russian expertise is such that very soon it is to be ready to deploy S-500 and India is also set to accede to Russian S-400 by 2021, according to EurasianTimes on July 8, 2020 10, but in the same context BJP MP Subramanian Swamy has told that they are fitted with Chinese electronics system, hence, India need not hunt for it. US Lock Heed Martin, which makes stealth F-35 is getting a run for its money, and now interestingly, Israel has given its Iron Dome Battery to US, tells Military.Com on October 5, 2020 11, to bolster its defences as Israel is all protected by it.
Why is Russia and China, both superpowers in their own right going ‘gaga’ over Iran? The obvious reply is Iran’s relentless challenge to US from the past 70 years, and also that very recently, before the Iran-China deal on July 12, 2020 was announced after when India was made to ‘exit’ from Iran-Chabahar project, China had also to bask in Israel ignominy! As Israel cancelled Chinese contracts ten days after the visit of US secretary to state Mike Pompeo, informed Haaretz on May 26, 2020 12. China has been left licking its wounds.
India and Israel are friends together, and India is getting every possible help from it against China which is in conflict with India along with Pakistan in the Himalayan region, particularly, since, India’s PM Modi abolished Article 370 which gave special status to JK& Ladakh on August 5, 2019. An unforeseen future but for sure a messiest conflict seem to await the world as Russia and China are expected to soon recognise Afghan-Taliban government once after the formal US withdrawal takes place, and thereafter, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Afghan-Taliban might be provided with Russian and Chinese weaponry, which is an alarm bell for India as they are considered not ‘that friendly’ with India. But right now however, Israel will leave no stone unturned to stop this Russian supply to Iran as once when Israel could do it now it would thereafter also stop S-500.
The writer is a former State Information Commissioner. He is a media analyst and writes on international politics.
References:
2-https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/iran-russia-s400-missile-defense-system.html
6-https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/07/17/turkey-officially-kicked-out-of-f-35-program/
8-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-natantz-israel-idUSKBN246089
9-https://www.vox.com/2020/7/17/21325985/iran-israel-explosion-natanz-nuclear-missile
11-https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/10/05/army-gets-first-iron-dome-battery-israel.html