By Dr. Zakir Hussain
“Perhaps, the dragons got what they wanted –A tough, tactical and resistant India.. “ Mobilization of additional 50,000 troops on western border where already 200,000 Combat-ready troops are present, sending fighter jets on the northern border and warships in Indian Ocean to vigil the Chinese trade and energy routes near Malacca, while keeping dialogue on track simply shows the growing grit and confidence of India to handle the Dragon. Both sides are showing their military as well as will powers to resist and face the consequences.
When such a situation occurs, the chances of a fight become dim. Both sides think that a little spark would be enough to turn the situation into a hellfire. In such a situation, two things happen, either they withdraw to come back with more preparations and ammunition or they start serious negotiations. They also encourage intermediaries to go between and bring them on a negotiating table.
What provoked China to break the quarter century tradition of peaceful border talks is exactly not known but India’s domestic policy, especially the Kashmir Policy and fortification on its boundaries, certainly made the dragons impatient. India and China had been in conversation over border issue since 1986 but no such bloody skirmishes took place like what happened in the Galwan Valley last year. China brutally killed India’s 20 soldiers and that happened in an atmosphere of trust and faith because there were no such precedents after the 1962 war. Both sides were maintaining calm and had held dozen rounds of border talks.
Once the Indian side learnt the intentions of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), it also hardened its position – not to be hunted unintentionally or in ignorance. That was perhaps unexpected to the Chinese elite. They perhaps thought that the Indian move in Kashmir and consolidation of security on borderlines were just for feeding the domestic population; for winning the election by showing the determination of the Modi government. The Dragon was even not prepared for or expecting such a global, especially West-Biden support in Indian favor. Beijing’s policy towards the US was also based on some presumptions such as President Trump would again come to power. In fact, the policies of President Trump had been a boon in disguise for Beijing. Though Trump’s trade war has hurt China economically, the space created for Beijing by the withdrawal of Trump administration at regional and global platforms such as ending TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), weakening of Quad, withdrawing from some important departments of the UN, including the WHO (World health Organization), climate talk, cutting Palestinian donations and promoting America First at the cost globalization and increasing protectionism gave President Xi Jinping free hand and space to expand and capture a leading voice in the world.
President Trump’s policy of packing both friends and foes in one bag also turned China into a Hobson’s choice for them. For four years, the world almost looked option-less.
However, with the coming of President Biden, Beijing perhaps miscalculated again. Beijing was not prepared to accept that President Biden would so fast in restoring US leadership. China’s intimating relations with Russia as well as poor socio-economic conditions, the riots and growing social division in the US, might have blinded Beijing to calculate the potential risk of going against India.
India’s ‘strategic autonomy’ had also been contributory to Beijing’s panache of doing excesses in the Galwan valley. It was perhaps unimaginative to the mandarins that both India and the US-Western allies, including the members of Quad, would change and respond so fast.
President Biden has taken some timely action not only to restore the confidence of its allies but also strengthen and revive the leadership image of the US; its values instilled hope and passion among both domestic and foreign population that the US is there to uphold its soft values which include democracy, human rights, gender equality, market economy, environment and globalism and anti-protectionism. His first address during his oath-taking ceremony and fast follow up both at domestic and overseas platforms, including Quad meeting, interest in WHO, joining of climate change wagon, and visiting Europe for G-7, NATO meeting perhaps gave Beijing little time to revise its stand.
At the same time, India too started taking note of its policies. New Delhi gave up the shibboleth of ‘strategic autonomy’, started mending its Kashmir policy and the recent all party meeting at Kashmir proved as a kind of balm to the aggrieved Kashmiris and sent a positive signal on human rights record. This will help the US-West to drag China on Human rights in the forthcoming meeting and save New Delhi’s skin. The US-West also tried to integrate India. The invitation to the G-7 meeting is one of them. India’s recent vaccine diplomacy, –selling and gifting to around 90 countries, is still fresh in many countries.
India also tried to address the possible joint China-Pakistan military front on its Western border. India tried to engage both Pakistan and Taliban; relented its stand on FATF (Financial Action Taken Force) against Pakistan. Although as of now some sources inform that India has backtracked from its Taliban engagements policy, the meeting of Indian Foreign Minister with Taliban leaders in Doha during his visit to Kuwait has given ample gesture that New Delhi has no permanent grudges with Taliban. If the Taliban remains responsible and pursue an independent foreign policy, New Delhi has no issue with them if they come to power after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. India’s main concern is that neither Taliban forces nor the soil of Afghanistan be allowed to be misused against India.
India has also cleanly conveyed China that it did not want any wedge in their bilateral economic and investment relations. Despite all these political ups and downs, China is still India’s largest trading partner, exceeding even the US despite this one year of military crisis. India is also gradually relaxing restrictions on Chinese investments in India imposed since last year.
Joining the US-West-Quad coalition will definitely bring some costs and force India to give up its strategic autonomy but New Delhi needs to look at other strategic options too to retain its bargaining power as well as meet any future politico-strategic transformations in the region and world. This is just like avoiding putting all the eggs into one strategic basket. Among others, two are important with whom India should remain steadfast. First is Russia and second is Iran.
Somehow, India should ensure Moscow that it is not going to join the anti-Russian US-Western policies, including the sanctions.
Sustained relations with Russia will not only help India to strengthen its strategic position but also prevent Moscow going with Islamabad full-fledged. Obviously, it will also help manage China to some extent. India should raise the issue of the deployment of S-400 defense batteries by China on Indian borders with Russia and ask Moscow to put bindings while it sells arms to India’s neighbors/rivals. This will be a victory against unconditional misuse of imported Russian arms. Such things India should also demand with its western allies selling arms to India.
India’s Iran relation is deep and seasoned. Both know each other’s potential and limitations. Iran needs India to manage its eastern and western borders, while India needs Iran for energy, connectivity and scuttling Taliban and Pakistan’s strategic depth both in the Gulf and the Central Asia. India should strictly avoid that neither any sectarian angle hogs its bilateral ties with Iran nor the Israeli factor colors its Middle East policy. Values and interests should guide India’s policy towards Tehran. Iran’s role has become crucial in INSTC (International North South Transport Corridor), Central Asia, SCO, and potentially making the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) successful.
Future growth of India is conceived on green, clean and sustainable energy. Increasing the share of natural gas is going to become one of the important drivers of India’s energy security. Here too Iran holds significance for India. Tehran holds the second largest gas reserves after Russia followed by Qatar. The proximity and shelf lives of gas reserves on the one hand and Iran’s eagerness to foreign investments in the energy sector on the other, offers to work on a win-win formula. It would not be rational to become blind and use sentiments and ideology to ignore and discard Iran or any Gulf countries. We must stick to our three concentric circle Gulf policy, represented by Israel, Shia Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab respectively. India should maintain its “non-interference” and “non-prescriptive” policy in the Middle East.
It is also important to remind Beijing that any skirmishes will not go without imposing heavy costs on China. India’s preparedness shows its mood of giving a matching response. One such loss to China would be an indefinite delay in the operationalization of the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). This will obviously disrupt the Belt and Road project. Can Bring afford this? This is perhaps China’s Achilles heel and India knows where, when and how much to hit there.
India now looks confident and prepared well to put its house in order, while giving up old clichés clinging to its foreign policies such as strategic autonomy, minimum engagements with US-West and soft state image in the world.
Perhaps, the dragons got what they wanted –A tough, tactical and resistant India.
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Dr. Zakir Hussain is a political economist. Views are personal.
If China’s goal was to antagonise India, let us relax our so called Strategic Autonomy and incentivise us to ally with the West, well they have succeeded. This has been a long time coming.
Dragons move was definitely not to disturb India. Rather they got perturbed. They thought the corona time was the best to squeeze India. The reasons seem two, first they were apprehensive of India’s consolidation on western border from where the CPEC is passing which India has not accepted/objected. Second, they thought that new America won’t come forward to India’s help, plus they were perhaps not expecting they would encounter a tough, tactical and resistant India.
This is what I feel. If you have any don’t shy to share.
Marquis de kalia,
The usual delusional Hindu day dreaming. China would annihilate India if things got serious. They didn’t even need weapons to send 20 Hindu monkey worshipping soldiers to hell last year. The West is no ones friend, and their dependance on China supersedes any thing India could possibly offer(nothing but cow urine and fake university degrees). India can only progress once the inhuman Brahmin cult of Hinduism is gotten rid of.
The West is not going to ally with superstitious low IQ Hindu pagan idiots who slam pots and pans and scream “go corona go” over a powerful contender like China.
China can’t even annihilate Taiwan, let the first conquer Taiwan, then Senkaku Islands, then East Turkmenistan, then north Vietnam, and then maybe they can think about Arunachal or look towards conquering Vladivostok. Also, the west has allied read. Quad.
Marquis de Kalia,
The Chinese don’t want to “annihilate” but dominate Taiwan, or its neighbors, you delusional low IQ Hindu extremist moron. India on the other hand is high on delusions of grandeur, only able to brutalize minorities. What was the Indian response to Chinese soldiers beating Indian soldiers to death with clubs and occupying 1,000 square kilometres of Ladakh? Banning a few Chinese phone apps, and foaming at the mouth on TV.
An impotent nation led by a illiterate Hindu terrorist incapable of securing its own borders.
Mr. BLACK dog nibba, India killed 45 Chinese soldiers..Even Chinese accepted loss. What 1000 Sq meter you are talking about??? India still patrolling galwan valley and kailash range. Did your ammi open her legs to a brain dead human, so you came out like this? Are you born with a pig brain, so that you can vomit poo everywhere. India can only progress when you low breed moo-slums will stop banging your head too much on the ground while chanting ollah hu uber
@Hindu gutter rat, aka Ram ki kali gaand
You need to stop eating cow sh1t and drinking gau mutr, smelly street rat. India didn’t kill 45 Chinese soldiers. Thats a lie not even the Indian government believes. It’s only unemployed 5 rupee tweeters like you active in IT cell and whatsapp university spreading this fake news. Why don’t you malnourished monkey worshipers go liberate the 1000 sq Km of Ladakh the Chinese occupy? You Hindus are low IQ inbred natural born cowards who have no response to hide your shame, incompetance and failures. Forgot about beating the Chinese, you goo bhakts can’t even provide basic health care and oxygen, that’s why you were begging and relied on Muslim nations to give you oxygen. Ungrateful subhuman Hindu rats are delusional to the max.
India will never progress as long as the backward superstitious gutter ideology of brahmin supremacy, Hinduism is prevalent. Keep slamming thalis, pots and pans screaming “go corona go!” while dying like dogs daily thanks to covid. You street shitters are the laughing stock of the world…!