By Haider Abbas
US White House released National Security Strategy , October 2022.
It did not take even a month when US had announced a 450 million USD F-16 US Fighter-Jet package to Pakistan on September 25, US ambassador to Pakistan Donald Blome visited Rawalkot and calling for ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir’ on October 4, raising Indian eye-brows and Pakistan COAS Qamar Javed Bajwa ‘honour-cordon’ at Pentagon-the same day, at par with Indian External Minister S Jaishankar on (September 27), came all crashing down, as Pakistan, according to the latest released National Security Strategy document by US on October 12, ‘does not exist’ anymore in the US overall plan in any near future.
The latest honeymoon of Pakistan is over, in fact, it had long been over after the Afghan-Soviet war, as the then US President Bill Clinton visited Pakistan only for five-hours while remained in India for five-days, in the year 2000, but then came September 11, 2001 and US sided with Pakistan to launch ‘war on terror’ to let millions of Iraqis, Libyans, Afghanis die in it, and now that is over too. There are now new paradigms which US is to postulate against, and China apart from Russia, make the bedrock of counter US strategy in the next years come. Gone are the days of Af-Pak policies, as now Indo-Pac, not Indo-Pak is what the new line is. US want to counter China in Indo-Pacific as the issue of Taiwan, against China, is on US priority list. Obviously, India fits naturally into the US frame, for historical issues with China, and therefore, Pakistan, which is an all weather China ally, is now to be on the sliding side.
The jolt to Pakistan was due, as it is caught between the worst US-China crosshairs, more precisely since February when Russia-Ukraine war broke-out while Pakistan Ex. PM Imran Khan was in Moscow, and had to pay a heavy price, as he was dislodged, after COAS Qamar Javed Bajwa’s nod, and a new puppeteer PM Shahbaz Sharif was put at the helm, and the most ambitious Chinese project China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, came to a grinding halt, something which US and India never wanted to ‘see it happen’. All the perceptions of the US tilt towards Pakistan have now been put to rest.
The 48-page US NSS document available in PDF form has made reference to India on eight counts, more than Australia and Japan, who are US most credible partners in QUAD, which is the emerging coalition against China and Russia. India is yet to be inducted into it. Pakistan, ironically and interestingly has been blacked-out from not even a one reference! Hence, Pakistan, after US withdrawal from its 20 years of ‘occupation’ from Afghanistan, has no utility left for US. The ‘curtains-down’ for Pakistan and a ‘curtain-raiser’ for US, in the US scheme to counter China and Russia, is now to be the next theme. The official US dictum on its foreign policy has now arrived.
What ironically is to be analyzed is that US has called India an ‘ally’ and not a ‘partner’ and that US now considers Russia ‘not that much a threat’ but the Peoples Republic of China as its most ‘consequential geopolitical challenge’ . The timings of release of US NSS is also of great importance as it came within a week before when Xi Jinping had to assume power for the third consecutive term. No wonder within this same month, UK ambassador to New Delhi, Alex Ellis had accorded the replacement of the Indo-Pak hyphenated term to Indo-Pac syntax. This is also what spells the mood in UK as it is too also likely to endorse the US affiliation with a pro-India policy. No wonder European Union as a whole is soon to follow the same consensus on China, with India’s help, more specifically due to China’s support to Russia in the war against Ukraine. India has as yet remained neutral and not condemned Russia over its Ukrainian war- which of course did not go well with US, but yet.
Since, now US has declared India as its ally which mean both the nations are to support each other particularly in case of a war, which stands that US-China conflict is soon to get more aggravated in Taiwan and obviously India is to throw its weight, which India has been doing of late, with US and Taiwan against China, and thereafter US will come out with a pro-India support system against China in the India-China conflict in the Himalayas. So much importance has been given to Indo-Pacific region that US has linked its scope to the ‘prosperity of everyday Americans’. The US has also kept into focus India’s traditional reliance on Russian made weaponry, for over since seven decades, and made it clear that US would engage with countries on ‘their terms’, which means India is not to be bullied by US to endorse an anti-Russia stand, but how long will US abide by its declarations is what only time would tell, given the history of US to have pursued only its own interests. Pakistan was well utilized for decades against Soviets and later in Afghanistan, but its utility has been outdone, hence, has been relegated to be a non-entity.
India which is primarily a poor country need to tread very cautiously as US wants to bludgeon Indian partisanship in Taiwan against China and if India is to make a plunge, then, it is most likely to attract the ire of Russia, which has promised to fight with China each-other wars, US most strategic partner in Gulf-the oil rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has also pulled-itself towards Russia, which is a friend of Iran, therefore, the conflict between Iran and Israel, might not attract KSA support to US, and with the emergence of Xi Jinping the issue of Taiwan is now at the centerstage. US, it seems to be working-hard to regain its lost glory, after its abysmal withdrawal from Afghanistan and is trying to reclaim its super-power status, but is now likely to face a fresh challenge from China and Russia. Israel and India are therefore to remain with US at all costs. Pakistan, will find it very hard to survive this US turnaround.
***
The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.