By Mushtaque Rahamat
Since the major withdrawal of American and NATO forces, within a couple of weeks, the Taliban captured most of the Afghanistan states and districts even the Presidential Palace, with surprising speed. No one expected Taliban to achieve this, and everyone is still trying to understand the vanishing of Afghan armed forces and the melting away of any resistance of the most provincial capitals. It has been remarkable how Abdul Rasheed Dostum former warlord, who had earlier fought alongside American forces against Taliban, fled to a neighbouring country. Similarly, Ismail Khan, the lion of Herat, surrendered to Taliban and son of another formidable force Abdullah Shah Masood endorsed Taliban.
This swift sweeping of territories by Talibans were remarkably for how bloodless these have been in most cases. There are few reports of killings and lootings in the wake of Taliban taking over. Taliban announced general amnesty to all those who seek not to fight and resist barring the incident of the killing of Afghan pilots. There have been, remarkably, no report of sexual harassment which are most common in the aftermath of military victory in most cases, molestation, forcible marriage or even the ill treatment of women across Afghanistan in the areas controlled by Taliban.
Inclusive and representative Government
Taliban, having, secured the highchair on the power table will be faced with a host of challenges. Foremost being the forming an inclusive government. Although Pashtuns makes for around 40-45% of the Afghanistan population and Taliban primarily draw strengths from this tribe, but there are other tribes, ethnic and religious minorities with whom Taliban must share power to represent all Afghans notably among them is Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turks, Hazara, Shias and groups who do not share the same ideals of governance and belief as that of Taliban.
Taliban shouldn’t discount the fact that in their previous stint in power they didn’t have full control of Afghanistan. A significant area of Afghanistan was under the control of Northern Alliance- a staunch opponent of Taliban. This time around Taliban must have a practical approach to the coalition formation by including and giving due space all such distinctive groups and power with reasonable say. Afghans of today are still untied and divided on the lines of tribal and ethnic identity and loyalty.
Women and Children
The previous regime of Taliban from 1996 to 2001, have gained notoriety of denying education and working rights to women. In general, women were forced to wear the Burqa and were not allowed to venture out without male chaperon. Strict rule of Taliban effectively denied Afghan women access to health, education, and employment. This is especially hard for widow and poor families where every member of the household has to earn livelihood.
According to the reports of UNICEF only 16 per cent of Afghanistan’s schools are girls-only and an estimated 3.7 million children are out-of-school in Afghanistan – 60% of them are girls. Taliban must deliver on the fair, and free from hindrances, access to education for all Afghan girls and women. Female education is not only a moral imperative but an economic necessity.
After the ousting of Taliban and under the USA and coalition forces Afghan government worked hard on the front of education. According to the one survey conducted in 2019 out of roughly 9 million children in school in Afghanistan today, as many as 3.5 million – roughly 40 percent – are girls. Taliban has to make sure not only these girls continue their education, but it should grow in the years come. They must understand without education no society has ever progressed. They must take a cue from the Prophet Muhammad (PUBH) who mandated education for both men and women and he didn’t out ceiling on the education of women.
Women and Children faced worsening access to medical and health facilities over the couple of decades owing to long-term fighting which caused population displacement and economic hardship, socio-economic status and the shortage of female health professionals. As per WHO’s report Afghanistan has one of the highest the infant and maternal mortality rates in the world. Women and children of Afghanistan have distinctly higher burden of illness and death. It is estimated that 40% of children are underweight and more than 50% of all deaths occur among those under age five. The higher death rate in women is mainly due to the complications of childbirth.
Engaging with International Community
Taliban has over the years grown to understand the fact the world is connected and interdependent. Afghanistan, to flourish, to develop and to bring peace and betterment to its people can’t afford to be hermit state or pariah country. Like any other nations and leaders Afghans would like its leadership to engage with the world and vis a versa. Taliban and its leader for the last couple of months have been visiting and meeting with its neighbouring countries notably among them have been visits to Iran, China, Russia and Turkey. As the war ends new government will have strong presence and influence of Taliban’s ideology but that shouldn’t come in the way of international relations based on mutual respect and interest. Taliban and its leaders of late have also been busy in assuring international community about their commitment to peace and their country won’t be used against any one for any illegal activity especially terrorism. After coming to power they must deliver on these promises to gain trust and earn goodwill. At the moment, there is, among international community, sense of reservation about Taliban’s claim, in view of the past experiences.
Rights of Minorities
Although Afghanistan is predominantly Muslim country; more than 99% of the population is Muslim with very small presence of Bahai, Christian and others. However, Afghanistan has been marked with intra- religious struggle- between Shia and Sunnis.
Taliban in the past had been accused of radicalising Sunni religion and leading violence against religious minority groups. The reports of civilian casualties resulting from attacks deliberately targeting Shi’a mullahs and places of worship have increased markedly since 2016. The Hazara Shi’a population is generally the most common victim of ethno-religious terrorism.
Taliban and its cohorts must ensure rights of the minority – religious and ethnic groups according, not only, to Islamic law (in Islam religious minority rights are protected) but also conforming to international laws and treaties. Of late, Taliban captured territories and areas which traditionally have been populated by the ethnic and religious minorities without much struggle and there have no reports atrocities from those areas. So far so good, but the real test lie when Taliban comes to power.
Economic Development
Afghanistan today is much changed country than it was in 2001. There have been improvement in life expectancy, incomes, and literacy since then, Afghanistan is still the poor, landlocked country highly dependent on foreign aid. With USD$ 507.10 per capita GDP Afghanistan is among the poorest countries in the world. Most of the population is still do not have access to clean water, electricity, medical care, employment and food and housing. Afghanistan is marred by very weak infra structure, corruption, weak or at times no governance at all. According to the Afghan government’s estimates, 42 percent of the Afghanistan’s total population lives below the poverty line. Also, 20 percent of people living just above the poverty line are highly vulnerable to falling into poverty.
New incumbent have their task cut out- launch an inclusive and rapid economic development. Vicious cycle of decade’s long fight must end and give respite to ordinary Afghans who have been the biggest losers of these years of unrest. Millions have been displaced inside the country and millions took refuge in other countries. The toppling of Taliban government in 2001 was a chance to rebuild Afghanistan but it failed miserably.
Need to rebuild
Afghanistan has presented, again, itself. Taliban must grab this opportunity to rebuild Afghanistan. It is situated, at the crossroad geographically and can use its location for economic advantage. Afghanistan can be gate-way and transit for Central Asian countries to access to warm water through Pakistan. Pakistan, of late, has actively been marketing its Gwadar port which is being built by the support of China. Besides, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has got potential for Afghanistan too. Central Asian countries has since long been interested in exporting natural gas to Pakistan and India through Afghanistan. But were withheld because of instability and fighting in Afghanistan. Its another neighbour Iran and China present one of the biggest market and economic super power. An economic prudent policy may yield more than the desired result in the short and medium term.
According to the report published by Ahmad Shah Katawazwai in the The Diplomat (February 01,2020) Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.
Taliban have proved themselves in the battle field, we have yet to see them how they perform in the field of economics.
Terror and non-state actors
Afghanistan since last couple of decades have been the hotbeds of terror activities of various denominations. Its form, definition and size have kept on changing from anti-soviets to Mujahedeen to Al Qaeda to ISIS. The world is changed place, rise of China and shrinking of Europe and USA from the world stage have changed geo-politics dynamics. So has the appetite for any terror and acts of violence by the non-stage actors against any community and country. The theory of pre-emptive strike has pushed the world to the danger of unintended and unwanted war with unknown consequences. Afghanistan having emerged from four decades of war, it can, no longer, afford to get embroiled in any kind of conflict either internally, externally with or without its consent and accord. Earlier Afghanistan gave protection, to Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden and his band of blood thirsty zealots, which brought no good to Afghanistan except thousands of dead bodies rendering women widow and children orphan and leaving thousands injured. Stubbornness of then Taliban costed Afghani very dear and they paid by their lives lost, displaced and pushed to poverty.
This time around Taliban must make sure not to allow any terror activities to take place against anyone within the country or outside its border. Lately Taliban has committed itself not allow Al Qaeda, ISIS or any other terror organization to operate from the soil of Afghanistan.
The world will wait & see and hope there is no repeat of 2001.
From the armed struggle to unarmed living
According to one estimate Taliban has some 80,000 fighter in its ranks. This number may be much higher if all its sympathisers and part time fighters are also taken into account. For decades these fighters have not experienced life without rifle hung from their shoulders. They do not know what an ordinary life looks like; majority of these fighters would have been kids in 2001. In armed struggle, life, has different meanings, daily affairs of life are conducted much different from that of civilian life. For this reason Taliban will have biggest challenge, which it ever faced, to channelize these energy, urge and habits of its battle hardened fighter to lead life without rifle, to adjust to humdrum of daily boring life. Some of these, certainly, will be conscripted in the army, employed in police and civil defence but a large number will find no use of their fighting skill in civil life. This may lead, if not handled properly, to despondency, discontentment and could ignite rebellion and has potential of being spoilsport.
According to one Pew research 27% American war veteran say re-entry into the civilian life was difficult for them—a proportion that swells to 44% among veterans who served in the ten years since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. There will be no surprise if something similar numbers of decommissioned Taliban fighters have same difficulty and some of them relapsed into the life of another armed struggle but this time against their own people.
A real challenges hitherto unmet by any of the fighter groups in Afghanistan.
Very interesting piece. A complete package to know all about the genesis of the issues with an approach to resolve them.
Taliban and the participants in the new government has to:
1-work with international community within the framework of International covenant, treaties and accord. Ingenuity, sincerity and flexibility will be required from the ruling dispensation of Afghanistan.
2-Manage law and order; with each passing day new ruling dispensation will be under extreme pressure to maintain law orders. They will be faced with disgruntled elements within their borders who could be source of problem. Additionally, spoilers and elements whose interest lies in keeping Afghanistan on boil will try to create law and order situation.
3-Insurgency or resistance from some quarter will also have to be proactively managed by Taliban and others .
4- Walking the talk; Taliban will have to walk the talk.
5- Taliban, specially, will come face to face with hostile foreign media coverage, even smallest inadvertent or genuine mishaps will be portrayed as another proof of their guilt.
Taliban along with the ruling dispensation will have to walk the tight rope and never lose the sight of justice, peace, happiness of the people of Afghanistan. Empty stomach doesn’t preaching.
A well researched article on Afghans, and also valuable suggestions to the current power grabbers, very balanced approach !!!
Sir, your view seems to be in a way justifying the take over of a country by hardliners. No doubt that Pakistan had a major role in this, without which this was never possible. Rather than supporting a democratic country, the country is now in chaos. No doubt that however modern and Liberal Taliban is trying to showoff to the world, their actions doesn’t endorse this.
My deepest condolences to the public of Afghanistan who have to further suffer…
Thanks for writing this piece to give all of us to think and compare older version of Taliban to new version. Author spent time in deep research to present this, points and challenges raised here is genuine and need of the time. Now litmus test for Taliban is to prove themself that they are changed, they are here to give equal opportunity to male and female to build this mineral rich country. Yes you are right they must take all religious groups together otherwise revolt is ready on the plate.
After reading this article I would like to request that keep updating us with your thoughts, researh and ideas.