By Haider Abbas
The Beijing Winter Olympics have started, and in order to snigger at India, China has deputized its commander Qi Fabao, as a torch-bearer of its Olympic flame , who had fought in the Galwan Clashes, on June 15, 2020, in which 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers and died , and accordingly India has retracted its Indian diplomats from representing in opening and closing ceremonies. It is also ironic that on June 20, 2020, five days after the incident, India’s PM Narendra Modi had announced that no one entered India, but on the contrary India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, after one year, on September 17, 2021, informed the Parliament, that China is holding 38,000 kms of India’s land in Ladakh. There is no denying about an uneasy calm, that lurks on the Indo-China border i.e. Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, even in Nepal etc, all the while as a two-front war, by China and Pakistan alike, is what looms large on India.
The ‘political’ winter Olympics at Beijing have started. How will India situate to it, is the gnawing question, particularly when Russia-the erstwhile super-power and China- the rising power, have come together by Russia landing support to Chinese position on Taiwan and China’s support to the Russian status on Ukraine, as a part of pre-exercise, before the winter Olympics were to begin, amid the US dismay, as in both the cases it involves US. India stands behind US, more specifically after the BECA was signed with the outgoing US President Donald Trump. There is much at stake for India.
The signals emanating from Beijing seem to be the completion of the formation of the anti-US bloc, as for the first time, something beyond the ‘Spirit of Olympics’ has taken place in the history, and instead a ‘political Olympic’ has arisen. The first causality for US is that many of its traditional allies i.e. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) have ditched- US and have gone ahead with the emerging Russia-China nexus.
This public declaration of Russia-China support-to-each-other, has started to call tremors in US which has long been irking China in South China sea and in-around Taiwan etc. War is already brimming over Russia-Ukraine border, with NATO, US and allies keeping a tight watch. Obviously with Russia-China on the same board, Pakistan, due to its all weather ally, China, is also gravitate towards the bloc -making India become more susceptible to any in-coming war.
The absence of Narendra Modi, or any representative from India on the occasion, gives a languid response to the up-coming scenario as India does not seem to keep-up with the pace, in the polity of the nations, ever since Modi’s visit to Bishkek, in the SCO meeting, on June 15, 2019, shortly after assuming to second-office, and where, he stayed at Orion Hotel, 30 kms away, from other dignitaries, who all were staying, at the Presidential Palace in Kirgizstan. The list included Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin then too.
The spring-up surprise for US was the presence of Qatar, Egypt, KSA and Crown Prince of UAE Muhammed Bin Zayed etc at Beijing, despite the fact that UAE is a strong ally of US and had embraced Israel in 2020, yet it has shown signs to drift away from US in its overall interests with China. It can also be referred that KSA Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman, who was once considered a personal friend of Donald Trump, was threatened to be punished by Joseph Biden, the now US President, over MbS alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist Jamal Khashoghi, which made KSA to also scout for avenues outside US, and therefore, KSA started to stitch new relations with China, proving thus, that US is now no more of its previous self, and is a waning super-power. KSA was the number one oil supplier to China in 2021, and now China has signaled to invest in the most-mega project of KSA-Vision 2030, in which a Meon City worth around 500 billion USD is to be built.
Can anyone deny as to how China and US do not see ‘eye to eye’ on many issues in the world, and that UAE and KSA etc presence in Beijing is a prove enough that US grip in Middle East is on the wane, or else why would these countries ever defy US? Another factor of equal importance are the Houthis rebels, of Yemen, and their fight against KSA and UAE, out of their support from Iran. Iran is what cannot be tamed through US as Iran has always been against US, can therefore, be pressurized through China, as China has of late decided to invest 400 billion USD in Iran’s economy and military. Here, something else also need to be contextualized, that is, the rise of the state of Israel in the Middle East- which has been the scarlet of US monopoly in the region. Israel is far above in its advanced technology and supplies weaponry and military hardware to India, which is what antagonizes China, pitching China against India more, thus forcing India to be in the bloc of Israel, US, QUAD and NATO etc. Russia, the traditional ally of India is no more the same.
What is now the emerging scenario? The leadership is clearly going to China, and it goes without saying that UAE and KSA will try to sideline from the Ukraine crisis but China is now open in alliance with Russia on it, how will India situate in case of a war is to begin over Ukraine and Taiwan alike, as it is all likely that US will pressurize India to get involved into it, is lieu of India’s concerns with China. A war with Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan, may also therefore, start to trigger an outright third-world-war, as it would signal that US is all set to be de-seated from its super-power status, and may go to any extent to salvage its status. Particularly, after its disastrous war of 20 years in Afghanistan which yielded for nothing.
Meanwhile, the bonhomie which had been witnessed between UAE and India too has been a little scuttled as UAE has gone head with buying South Korean missile system instead of India’s Akash missile system on January 22-which by any standard is a big blow to India. In case the war breaks over Ukraine, the world surely stands on a brink of a third-world-war. How India will navigate its foreign policy in these chaotic times is for the time to see, as in 2014, India had remained silent when Russia had taken over Crimea, and this time too, it has leaned towards Russia in UNSC, as it abstained from the meeting on it on January 31. But, in these last eight years India is in a totally new mould, with US on probably every step. What is to unfold next is to be seen.
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The writer is a former Information Commissioner and a political analyst.