By Haider Abbas
The Jewish state of Israel is slated to go to polls on November 1, to have its 25th Knesset, and most arguably the whole scenario is geared into a poll fever. The polls are notably to go between the two most powerful faces; outgoing PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has made coalitions with ‘far-right’ forces and the present PM Yair Lapid who had formed a unity government i.e. six-months rotational-government with Netfali Bennet. Yair Lapid runs Yesh Atid Party which is Liberal Political Party, Naftali Bennet holds New Right Party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party is National Liberation Movement. With nearly a week to go to polls, Israel has been caught in a bind, over the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, with an Iran angle into it.
There is no argument that Iran and Israel are ‘arch-rivals’ and there is a war lurking on Iran from Israel with US and its partners support. US lately has also stitched a Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Israel coalition, with the sole purpose to cow-down Iran, which has been subjugated for more than four-decades by US sanctions, while Israel has enjoyed an unparallel US support in the whole Arab region since the last 70 years. The Covid-19 lockdown turned-out to be a blue-moon harvest for Israel as UAE opened up Israel embassy on August 14, 2020, to snigger at Pakistan independence-day, and later Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan formalized diplomatic relations with Israel. Those all were the trophies of the outgoing US President Donald Trump to Israel, before he bowed-out to the self-professed Zionist Joseph Biden, in January 2021.
The latest conflagration between Iran and Israel is over the supply of Iranian drones to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Ukraine has been supplied by Bayraktar drones from Turkey which is a ‘welcome’ from US but Iran’s supply is what has raised the eye-brows in all of Europe, NATO and US alike. There has been a dire Ukrainian Air Defense demand that Israel supply its air-defence system, in what may be considered as a tit-for-tat to Iran, as the demand, ‘to send “defensive” weapons to Kyiv (Ukrainian capital) reached a tipping point after Russia’s use of Iranian drones in the war. Israeli Minister Nachman Shai said Iran’s involvement in the war had left “no doubt (on) the position Israel should take”. Ex- PM Netanyahu’s promise to “look into” arming Ukraine if elected again complicated matters for the ruling coalition further. As a result, Defence Minister Benny Gantz issued an unequivocal refusal to supply air defence systems to Ukraine,’ reported News 18 1. To add to it, Israel Minister for Diaspora Affairs Nahman Shay claimed, ‘this morning, it was reported that Iran is transferring its ballistic missiles to Russia. There is no longer ant doubt about Israel’s position in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military assistance, as the US and NATO countries do.’ But, officials at the Foreign Ministry of Israel clarified that ‘his ( Nahman) words do not represent the government, informed Time. News 2 .
The voices from within the government have come, to neutralize, the declaration which has been made by Benjamin Netanyahu, that if he is voted to power, he would reconsider military help to Ukraine. His statement to promise to “look into” arming Ukraine, if elected again have complicated the matters for the ruling rotational government. Benny Gantz, who is also a hawk, said that “ I would like to emphasize that Israel will not transfer weapon systems to Ukraine due to a variety of operational considerations but also added that Israel could provide an early warning system to Ukraine, an offer Kyiv envoy dismissed as “ not relevant anymore”. There has been reported a widespread support to Gantz stand, as per Israeli newspaper Haaretz, but Israel also seem to not to irritate Putin-the Russian President, as Russian former leader Dmitry Medvedev warned that any “reckless move” to supply weapons to Kyiv would “destroy all bilateral relations”.
It can well be understood that if Israel takes-a-move than Moscow, as a part of quid pro quo, may start to again arm Israel rivals in Middle East like Syria, and Russian air-defence-systems like S-300 and S-400 may land up in Iran too, which will obviously challenge the uncontested Israel supremacy in the region’s airspace. It is also a known fact that Israel, with the alleged tacit support of Russia, has been able to carry out air strikes inside Syria, at alleged Iranian targets, as Russia has withdrawn its forces from Syria as per New York Times 3 on October 19, to potentially alter Israel calculations about striking Syria or arming Ukraine. Russia has withdrawn its forces and sent its military-police to Syria to meet to its war with Ukraine. This has been a bait from Russia to Israel.
Russia is right now into a hot pursuit and if Iron Dome technology of Israel reaches Ukraine, it would prove detrimental to Russia as Russia would this time, react more harshly, as it claimed that in 2018, Israel strike on Russian spy plane had killed 15 Russian soldiers, apart from this Russia has accused Israel mercenaries fighting ‘shoulder to shoulder’ against Russia alongside Ukraine, reported by Times of Israel 4 on May 4. All this has ostensibly made Gants to announce a blanket refusal to arm Ukraine, despite the pressure from West to start to supply arms to Ukraine, that too, at a fragile moment with only a week to go for polls.
It can be anyone’s guess that once the elections are over, then, whosoever forms the government, would send the military and air-defence systems to Ukraine, as there has been a growing clamour for it from US too, and everyone knows that Israel technology stands solely on US support system! US Senator Chris Murphy has said, “ Israel needs to get off the sidelines, Israel is a part of the community of democracies and it needs to stand to Ukrainian democracy . I just don’t buy that countries like Israel need to play both sides . This is a moment where you have to take a side and have to stand by the people of Ukraine, pointed out Haaretz 5 on October 23. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also a Jew.
What is to happen next, will have dire consequences and the world may inch more further towards the World-War-III, it is time for India to make a hard-watch.
The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international politics.
References:
3- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria-israel-ukraine.html
5- ‘Time to take a side’: U.S. lawmakers push Israel on aid to Ukraine