By Mohammad Elyas Thumbe
Anxiously awaiting the Lok Sabha election, expected to take place in April-May 2024, just two months away, the significance of this electoral event is magnified as it is considered a decisive mandate that may lead Indian democracy and federalism down a transformative path. The BJP is poised to realize its agenda, with both the BJP and RSS vigorously working towards establishing a pronounced ‘Hindu Rashtra’ through this election. The party is gearing up for the polling campaign with the ambitious “Mission 400,” employing tactics such as inaugurating the so-called incomplete Ram Mandir to engage in successive election gimmicks aimed at polarizing Hindutva votes. This strategic maneuvering includes controversies like CAA and Gyanvapi Masjid to sway Hindu sentiments. The current political landscape suggests a paramount era for the BJP and RSS, as opposition parties struggle to unite and display a lack of tireless dynamism to resist and prevent the BJP from seizing power.
In the preceding two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured only 31% and 37% of the votes nationwide. Despite opposition parties being aware that 67% of the people voted against the BJP, their failure to consolidate and form a united front through an inclusive alliance remains evident. With only two months left for the election, opposition parties within the INDIA bloc have yet to reach a consensus on seat sharing and lack a unified leadership for the alliance.
This inability to form a cohesive alliance foreshadows the potential outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha election. The BJP relies heavily on two factors: maintaining dominance in the Hindi Belt, including states like Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, UP, and MP, along with native linguistic states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Bihar; and a conspiratorial tactic to polarize votes through religious hatred, portraying Muslims as enemies. The party’s campaign, titled “Mission 400,” positions itself as the sole defender of Hindu dharma, capitalizing on the inauguration of an incomplete Ram Mandir.
Examining the historical context, the BJP’s rise to prominence can be traced back to the 1984 Lok Sabha election when it won only two seats. However, through strategic communal polarization during subsequent elections, especially around the “Babri Masjid – Ram Janmabhoomi” issue, the BJP increased its vote share, leading to significant gains. The anti-incumbency factor in the country is evident, yet the opposition’s failure to capitalize on this sentiment is remarkable. Unemployment, soaring prices, anarchy, pro-corporate policies, and an undeclared emergency have fueled discontent among the public, creating an environment ripe for opposition mobilization.
The BJP’s foreign policy has strained relationships with neighboring countries, adding to the list of incumbency factors. Despite these challenges, the BJP has adeptly prepared for the upcoming election, leveraging strategic polarization tactics. The recently inaugurated Ram Mandir and the proposed implementation of a Uniform Civil Code feature prominently in the BJP’s publicity campaign.
Within the INDIA bloc, divisive factors outweigh unity formulas, with notable departures and disagreements among alliance members. Nitish Yadav’s alignment with the BJP, Akhilesh Yadav’s potential departure, Mamata Banerjee’s dissatisfaction, and Bhagwant Singh Mann’s rebellion showcase the fragile unity of the opposition. The lack of trust among alliance members and the Congress’s reluctance to accommodate Muslim-based parties reveal a deeper rift within the opposition.
Despite the prevailing political complexities, the Congress, seen as the dominant force, appears hesitant to foster a united front with its allies. The party’s reluctance to include Muslim-based parties in the alliance suggests a perceived indifference towards this crucial voter segment. As the election draws near, the prevailing political situation raises questions about the future of India’s democracy and secularism post-Lok Sabha election. The uncertainty surrounding the country’s political landscape underscores the need for a united and dynamic opposition to counter the BJP’s formidable campaign.
The writer is National General Secretary Social Democratic Party of India.