By Javeed Mirza
The war on GAZA, the tiny strip of land 41 km (25 miles) long and 6 to 12 km (3.7 to 7.5 mi) wide with a population of around 2.5 million, sandwiched between Israel and Egypt, has transfixed global eyes, as they see with horror, live images of Israel’s massive bombing, destruction and wanton killing and maiming of helpless civilians and children in the tens of thousands. An attack on Israel on Oct 7,2023 by Hamas, and other groups fighting against Israel led to the killing of around 1200 Israeli citizens and the capture of around 250 civilians, including children, as hostages. On Oct 27, 2023, Israel launched a massive and brutal invasion of Gaza. This was preceded by, “…a complete siege on Gaza … No electricity, no food, no water, no gas – it’s all closed” (Israeli Defense Minister).
Israel seized Gaza from Egypt as a result of winning the 1967 war. However, soon after its occupation, Israel experienced massive protests against its rule. It withdrew from Gaza in 2005 but initiated and maintained a blockade of the Gaza Strip, fully controlling its airspace, territorial waters, and its economy. It controls two of its three border crossing points (the third is controlled by Egypt). This had earned Gaza the monicker of being the “the largest open-air prison of the world”.
EFFECTS
The Gaza war has had a profound impact, ricocheting in the global economy, matters related to defense, international and local alignment of nation-sates, and consciousness. It has upset the existing balance of power and created new forces and trends.
a) Israel, the leading power in the region is now beset by strong enemies that it is unable to control. As such, its power has markedly decreased. The enemies are members of the “axis of resistance” and these include the powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Syria, and Iraq. The anti-Israel forces are launching attacks brazenly, and Israel is unable to stop them.
b) The Hezbollah launching of missiles and firepower has displaced over 100,00 Israeli citizens living in the area adjoining Lebanon. Israel is seen to be in no position to fight and thwart them.
c) The Houthis control of the Red Sea has adversely affected Israeli access to global trade and its economy.
d) The militias in Syria have strengthened fortifications in the Golan heights and pose a threat to Israels occupation of the Golan heights.
e) The militias in Iraq have provided manpower and other resources for the fight against Israel. They also pose a potent threat to the presence of the USA in the region. Iraq is not negotiating terms for the USA withdrawal from Iraq.
f) Iran has emerged as the leading power by its influence over the members of the axis of resistance. It is the main supplier of weapons to groups like Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank.
g) Iran demonstrated its military capabilities by a pre- announced attack on Israel that Israel’s multilevel defense shields were unable to prevent.
h) The USA’s consistent “iron-clad” support of Israel has been dented. It has objected to Israel’s obstruction of global aid to the Gazan population and to the launch of the Rafah assault. It has put a hold on the supply of some weaponry to Israel.
i) The hitherto unanimous support by both the Democrats and the Republicans for military aid and moral support to Israel is now being questioned by the mainstream in the USA, especially the young folks. A strong progressive caucus is emerging in the Congress. Some senators have also expressed a need for Ceasefire and voiced concern about the abuse of power by Israel and its treatment of the Palestinians.
j) The USA has become a global pariah by its support to the continuation of the war by Israel when almost all the global countries have called for a Ceasefire. Its multiple vetoes in the UN have earned it a bad reputation, and it has lost its moral standing. It has become, virtually, the sole supporter of Israel.
k) Global condemnation of Israel’s killing of civilians and children and massive destruction has heaped anger and resentment against Israel. This is seen in the voting in the UN, where 140-plus countries have opposed Israel’s actions. A number of countries have downgraded their diplomatic relationship with Israel, and some have shut their diplomatic and trade relationship.
l) Many countries led by South Africa foisted a case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The latter, after due investigation, declared that Israel was following a policy of “plausible genocide”. Their observation to stop this and the strictures for correction of Israel’s working have been ignored.
m) The International Criminal Court (ICC) is now contemplating the issuing of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders. A group of senators in the USA has warned the ICC against doing this and threatened it. It shows desperate attempts to stop ICC working.
n) The European Union, a hitherto aggressive supporter of Israel, is calling on Israel to stop the killings and ensure that global aid reaches the Gazans. Only a few countries like Germany are backing Israel. Germany has also been brought to the ICC by Nicaragua (the case was rejected by ICC). However, this has put Germany on the defensive, and its complicity in the Gazan killings through its supply of weapons used against Gazans is being investigated.
o) In the Middle East, the Arabs have shown passionate support for the Palestinians. This support by the people of the region has forced the leaders of the countries like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE to calibrate their willingness to work with Israel and the USA. They have distanced themselves from the “Abrahamic accord”. Societal fissures have developed within these societies as the leaders, integrated into the world economy and indebted to USA for military and economic aid, seek to balance their existential needs and aspirations with the active support expressed by their citizens in favor of the Gazan and Palestinian people.
p) Gaza has incited global citizens to march against oppression and for justice. Youth and activists have taken to the streets to voice their strong condemnation of Israel and its policy of Apartheid and brutal killing.
q) By virtue of destroying hospitals, universities, churches, mosques, and deliberate targeting of media and UN relief works, Israeli leadership is seen as a monster regime by global citizenry Only the Christian Evangelists in the USA and right-wing parties in Europe are voicing support to Israel.
IMPLICATIONS
a) Zionism, the policy of the founders of the state of Israel, has lost ground as it seeks to forcibly remove the Arabs from all of “Greater Israel” (this constitutes a larger region of Palestine than the current state of Israel). The invasion of Gaza was the latest and the last occasion for the Zionists to convert their dream of ridding Arabs out of Israel, a reality. This has been a colossal failure. The global world is unwilling to see merit in such acts that Zionists feel is right. Apartheid, Settler colonial state is an anathema to many people around the world and has little backing. Within Israel, an undercurrent does exist against Zionism. The Jewish voice of peace and other anti-Zionist movements are gaining ground. The unwillingness of the Zionist for a 2-state solution (an Arab state and a Jewish existing side by side) and its continuous obstruction is giving way to the realization that a viable 2 state solution is the only alternative.
b) The pre-eminent position of Israel in the USA echelons is giving way to the need to balance support for Israel with support for Arab countries (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt). This new policy is considered to be more strategically advantageous than support for only Israel. Israel will cease to be the lynchpin in the region.
c) The repeated failure of the UN and its huge limitation in averting or alleviating the war, pain, and destruction is a defining moment for its continuation. It must reform or give way to a new construct of the UN or a parallel or alternate organization that is more balanced (without the Veto power) and is able to act swiftly and effectively.
d) Continuous rallies across the USA and the global world have instilled awareness and political consciousness on a large scale. This will have a direct impact on the democratic working in each country. Grassroot organizations will create new parties that will be more favorable to their real interests and not those fostered by the existing leaders.
e) The USA and the Western world’s active global propagation of human rights and democratic rights is seen to be hollow when it comes to the Gaza question. Their credibility has been severely affected, and they stand alienated from the countries of the developing world. This is a huge drawback, and it can not serve the Western strategic global interests.
f) Many western countries like Spain and Norway, etc. have expressed their willingness to recognize Palestine as a country. Such recognition will weaken Israel and strengthen the Palestinian voices, and bring it material and moral support.
g) The Gazan war has brought the developing world together, and they have joined hands to fight Zionism and the state of Israel as well as the countries that support them. This is seen in their vocal articulations as well as their working at the UN and in the ICC and the ICJ.
h) BRICS plus has gained strength and is increasing in membership. The support of the USA and Europe to Israel has isolated them from the developing world and encouraged the latter to come together and build a more sustainable and fair global system.
i) The Ukraine War and the Gazan War have made developing countries work to replace the dollar and use other currencies for trading. This is soon going to affect the USA and Europe as their currencies will diminish in value.
j) With the heightened consciousness from the Peace movement and the students movement, Progressive trends are emerging in the USA and the stranglehold of the Jewish lobby like AIPAC and other conservative bodies will soon diminish as the citizens will not be bought over by these established agencies that seek to perpetuate the existing order.