By Haider Abbas
There is a berserk activity, on the world stage, since Iran’s President Ibrahim Raisi visited Pakistan on April 24. Both the nations signed eight MoUs and later Raisi visited Sri Lanka where he was lauded as a ‘Lion of the Middle-East’. This is the first visit of the Iranian President after Iran had retaliated to Israel on April 14, in exchange to the Israeli attack on Iranian consulate in Syria. What is most ironic is that Raisi’s visit comes in the midst of a developing war between Iran and Israel. Israel has been impounding Palestine for more than 200 days, after Hamas had attacked Israel on October 7 last year. Iran supported groups like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Ansar-ul-Lah Houthis (Yemen) and from inside Iraq and Syria have been on attacks against Israel and US too.
What however seem to have compounded Pakistan problems more, after Raisi’s visit, is that US has threatened to impose sanctions on Pakistan, if it is to go ahead with Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, something which India was also to join, but has backtracked from it long back. Now, what kind of sanctions are to be imposed. The first likely to come are sanctions on Agriculture and Textile industry, which will derail whole exports of Pakistan, and more particularly the companies involved in gas-and-energy projects with Iran. Pakistan is already reeling under a penalty of 18 billion USD from Iran as it is yet to complete the laying of gas pipeline on its side. Iran has completed it until the borders of Pakistan. Both the nations had decided for it in 2010.
There is a dread in Pakistan if US may impose financial sanctions, which is to result into all the international transactions between the banks of the two nations to come to a halt. US may not only freeze the bank transactions but also assets of these Pakistan banks inside its boundaries. The first result of it would make dollar prizes to skyrocket, and to further fracture Pakistan, US may also stop international loan and aid to Pakistan too! International Monitory Fund and World Bank-will just turn away from Islamabad. If all this is to happen? How will Pakistan cope with it? More particularly, when it has been marred with internal strife, terrorist attacks on its armed forces and growing political instability as its outgoing PM Imran Khan, sits in jail, after its massive rigged elections. It can easily be understood that if International Monitory Fund (IMF) which is under the thumb of US, does not oblige Pakistan with a fresh loan, it would just spiral down into the bottomless pit.
The sanctions are coming. There may be sector specific sanctions, which is to curtail the energy-sector companies to made ‘limited’ in their transactions, to be followed by travel ban, and that would mean a ban on government officials and officials of the companies involved, to not to be allowed to visit US, this is what will hurt Pakistan at the inner most level. The use of credit-and-debit cards for travel and even online-shopping may be hampered. Even the routes of the airlines may be changed ‘to-and-fro’ Pakistan. There may not be international investments coming-into for Pakistan, and of course, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is the prime ally of US will also look the other way from any investments. China, which had started its most ambitious China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), opposed by India and US since a long time, may also find it ‘more-difficult’ as that would invite a further wrath from US.
If this all is to come? Then, obviously people will loose their employment, even outside Pakistan, and as can be understood Pakistan will be in total disarray, all in exchange of bonhomie with Iran. But, Pakistan knew it will all happen, yet it invited Raisi? This is what has baffled the political analysts as instead of world isolating Iran, which is on the verge to test nuclear weapons, Pakistan welcomed Raisi. May be after a nod from KSA? As China has been very instrumental into getting KSA and Iran get-together. China is also trying to lobby-it-fast, that Raisi may visit KSA too, and the Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman visits Tehran. If this is to happen, then for sure, US will get to its worst embarrassment.
What deserves to be mentioned that Iran has been fighting such sanctions from the past around fifty-years and owing to its civilizational resilience, Iran has coped with it, has made tremendous strides in the field of science, medicine, space technology etc, despite hundreds of spanners thrown towards it, in the wake of protests inside Iran etc. But, this anti-US stand is what has made China to start to invest around 430 billion USD in military-and-market inside Iran. Iran is now to help Sri Lanka with technology and it is an open secret that Sri Lanka is much closer to China in compassion to US. This is where India needs to look into.
Will Pakistan now jeopardize the pipeline project and request Iran to not to go towards international-court to make Pakistan pay 18 billion USD to Iran for not completing the laying of pipeline from its side? How long with Iran continue to relax as that would become a precedent for other nations too, and they would also make agreements with Iran and then leave Iran citing US sanctions? This will make a mockery of Iran and US will just smile in its ranks. It is no doubt a do-or-die situation for both Pakistan as well as for Iran.
How will Pakistan cope with these developments as on the international scale, India is striving hard to replace Pakistan products, and moreover, Pakistan which does enjoy the GSP Plus status, which is often given to nations which are poor, and where import duties are cut to zero, but in the wake of these US sanctions Pakistan will also be stuck-off from this status too! How will then Pakistan survive? As the survival line for Pakistan needs the cheap gas energy, which is what Iran can only provide. Pakistan is now standing on its worst existential crisis. Its economy is in utter shambles, while it faces a belligerent India, which has announced that it would soon snatch Gilgit-Baltistan back!
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The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.