By Haider Abbas
There is very little time, when US will hold Turkiye by the ‘scruff of its neck’ to start to provide its bases against Iran and Russia, and the most likely scenario will be that its President Erdogan will comply, as that is what the last 195 days have proven! Turkiye, in fact, after October 7, 2023, when the Israel-Palestine war began, had been supplying military exports on a very rapid scale to Israel. Its exports to Israel had risen by 34.8 percent, informed The Cradle. There is a Turkiye hand in every of the more than 45,000 Palestinians killed so far. Jordan, under US influence, is just the latest to join the Israel bandwagon which shot down Iranian drones targeting Israel. Will Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its protégé UAE and then even Pakistan submit to US? India, of course had long been a partner in Israel-India-United States-UAE (I2U2), all aimed against Iran.
The world is not at all talking about Israel’s use of its most despicable Artificial Intelligence engines like ‘Lavender’, ‘Where’s Daddy’ and ‘Gospel’ involved into Robotic/Computerized genocide against Palestinians, even after it killed three sons and also grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh, the chief of Hamas. What matters however, is the shift in world’s attention, from Israel mass destruction in Palestine, primarily after the massacre of more than 140 people inside Crocus mall in Russia on March 22. It was owned by The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (IS-KP) and while the attack was going-on, US had announced that Ukraine was not involved? Which it was as claimed by Russia as the perpetrators were trying to flee to Ukraine. Ramzan Qadirov-the Chechen army chief, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, helped nab the murderers. Russia has vouched to punish Ukraine and US alike, as it is CIA which already has 12 forward operation bases, as a part of ‘Operation Goldfish’, on the Ukraine-Russia borders, all engaged into targeting Russia.
The chronology as to how the theatre of war from Russia-Ukraine has changed towards the Israel-Iran has to be put into order. It took its cue from US neo-con Victoria Nuland, who had on the second anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war (February 22), openly commanded that from the US supplemental funding, Putin was into for some ‘nasty-surprises’ as the ‘asymmetrical warfare has been the most effective’. What is this asymmetrical warfare if not the gift which came on March 22? This ‘nasty-surprise’ in fact was to have come on Russia when its most popular star Shaman was to perform at a festive concert dedicated to the ‘Defender of the Fatherland Day’ on February 28, but owing to the beefed-up security the attack did not happen, or during the very Russian elections (March 15-17)-which saw Putin’s win with 87% votes. It can be anyone’s guess that US knew the attack was coming, as it had issued a warning for its citizens, on March 7, to not to visit any concerts or large gatherings etc in Moscow.
But, before Russia could sensitize the world, Israel bombarded the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1, which killed seven Iranian military advisers, including three senior commanders. This is the moment when the world changed its focus totally conflict towards the upcoming conflict between Israel and Iran, and also in the same vein, got distracted from the ongoing Israeli holocaust on the Palestinians. The Israel invasion on Rafah can thus now easily begin.
As the full-scale war may happen between Israel-Iran, there is a news percolating from Politico on April 17, that ‘Ukraine is heading for defeat’ as its political leaders, military officers and ordinary citizens hold the view that Ukraine is slipping towards the disaster. Iran also has retaliated with a barrage of 301 drones on Israel, hitting three Israeli air bases, including Nevatim, which involved in the attack on its consulate. There is now every likelihood that very soon there might be a cycle-of-attacks from both sides. Therefore, no sooner the war in Ukraine ends, even if in a disaster for US , there is a new war in the Middle-East waiting to happen, and which, of course, has every potential to spill-out into a third world-war.
The new military positioning is the Russian presence on the Syrian border facing Golan Heights and it is here where US and Israel want to bleed Russia after the Ukraine loss. But, Russia and China are now to be read without a hyphen, as both the nations, had on the eve of Beijing Winter Olympics (2022), decided to fight-each-others-wars. This togetherness has made both transfer ‘technology’ to Iran, and Iran has stood side-by-side with Russia against Ukraine. Moreover, China has invested around 425 billion USD in Iranian ‘market and military’, no wonder, this new equation has made Israel and US both jittery to not to attack Iran-that soon.
There are already reports in world media, as informed through Daily Mail, that Iran’s growing clout in technology may enable it to destroy Israel F-35 bombers with Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) as Iran has bragged that it would unleash ‘weapons never used before’ if attacked! Professor Gerald Steinberg, head of Jerusalem-based NGO Monitor, has advised Israel to not to take any hasty strep which may result in any irreparable misadventure. Israel has so far desisted from any further attack on Iran, despite the hoopla of the attack on city of Isfahan, Iran.
It is now getting clear that these summers might see a total defeat of Ukraine, as NATO and US have ‘shifted’ their focus towards Israel, but this Middle-East conflict is getting worse by the day. How will this conflict reshape the US polity, in the run-up to the November Presidential elections is what the world is waiting for. But, the world lobby, no doubt, has very artfully shifted the attention from what has been Russia’s 26/11 towards Middle-East. Russia has also vowed to kill Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine intelligence (GUR), as the man responsible for its March 22 massacre.
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The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.