By Haider Abbas
There is a whole range of new dimensions broken after Russia has decided to supply 25 tons of highly enriched Uranium towards China’s first fast reactor CFR-600. This will enable China to enhance its nuclear stockpiles to no-end. How will India strategize to meet to this new Chinese challenge? Will US step into to make India become a counter-balance to China? Particularly, when the world now stands on an almost edge of the Third World War?
The article begins:
The US strategy, to keep China out from Russia-Ukraine war has boomeranged. US is now on the edge as there are reports that China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have decided to go ahead and further their nuclear concord! This is what precisely has sent a chilling message to Pentagon, as US is jittery over reactor transfers as key to China’s nuclear programme, as after all, Russia is the world highest supplier of atomic technology, reported Bloomberg 1. US ‘fears’ have also been ‘fanned-more’ as there are reports that Iran too, has become ‘close’ to perform the nuclear-test. Interestingly, both Russia and Iran are under extreme sanctions slapped by US, after the war between Russia-Ukraine broke on February 24, 2022.
Just before the first anniversary of the war, US President Joseph Biden, on February 20, made a secret and surprise five-hours visit to the capital of Ukraine-Kyiv and on March 21, Japan PM Fumio Kishida visited Ukraine, interestingly after visiting India, to offer solidarity with Ukraine. The entire West and US has stood by Ukraine with billions of US Dollars aid along with military supplies to Ukraine. Russia and China as a part of tit for tat, came more-together on March 20 as Chinese President made a three-days visit to Moscow. This visit is what is being considered, according to geo-strategic experts, as a turning-point in this evolving new world order, with Russia-China-Iran-North Korea on one side and Australia-UK-US (AUKUS)-India-Japan-Israel on the other.
The prime reason to set to alter the world geo-politics is that Russia and China have both announced a long-term deal to continue developing fast neutron reactors. This has made US to scramble as the deal has every potential to upset the global balance of nuclear weapons. It may be specifically mentioned that Russia had in 2022 finished transferring 25 tons of highly enriched Uranium, from its giant Rosatom Corp to China’s first-fast reactor-the CFR-600. The renewed supplies of ‘fuel’ from Russia are likely to help China develop 50 nuclear war-heads per year, caring a fig towards the US efforts to crackdown on this new dangerous liaison between Russia and China. Despite whatever alarms US is set to make over it.
US knows it too well about the critical role China is poised to play through its CFR-600, as China is slated to have a stockpile of 1500 nuclear weapons by 2035. However, China has rejected US concerns. But, owing to the surge in Russian supplies, it would be a giant leap for China as it has around 400 such weapons right now, reported The Hindustan Times 2. Putin is likely to reciprocate Beijing by a visit until the end of the year. This Russia-China effort is primarily focused on the new AUKUS deal which stands for Australia to get at least three US Virginia Class nuclear submarines by 2030’s, reported The Drive 4 on March 13 at a price of 250 billion USD. India which is at a ‘difficult-relationship’ with China is also to strengthen its defenses, particularly, when China will acquire this huge-nuclear edge over it.
Australia is of course to develop a whole new class of submarines in the coming years. This has raised China and Russia to raise eyebrows and wants AUKUS members to strictly fulfill their obligations under Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of these weapons of mass destruction, despite Australia’s denial that submarines will not be armed with nuclear weapons. There is however, no room left for any doubt, that the submarines are to be aimed against China. The AUKUS is engaged with China in the Indo-Pacific, specifically over Taiwan, and wants to push China into its strategic backyard.
In the backdrop of belligerent AUKUS, where India is also likely to be inducted, as Australia PM Anthony Albanese was in India for four-days ( March 8-11), this new Russia-China standpoint has come out. It may well be recollected, that both had declared jointly a ‘no-limits’ friendship on the eve when Beijing Winter Olympics were organized in February 2022, which India had boycotted. The new Russia-China strategy is to seek a world opinion that US and West does not want to see peace in Ukraine as China’s 12-point formula, released on February 24, on its Foreign Ministry 3 website, has no-takers yet. This is what China actually wants. It wants to force the world to embrace its peace-plan through its CFR-600 threat!
The Russian muscle flexing with China has sent shockwaves in the entire West as Ukraine biggest war backer US has been ‘alarmed’ all over. Joseph Biden is in a bind, as both have sent a blunt warning to the West, which has put US into a vulnerable position, either to embrace China’s peace plan or risk China acceding to new nuclear stockpiles! As US would end up as a warmonger if it does not accept it, and that US is against the ceasefire, and also it will discredit US with its allies ( NATO etc) that US is fighting for Ukrainians. The biggest worry for US is that Russia might too start to solicit military help from China, the way Ukraine is getting it from whole of Europe, NATO and US. This is what would turn out to be the onset of the great impeding World War Three.
If this is to happen China would no longer be on the sidelines but instead will take to centerstage with US not only in Ukraine but also in South China Sea over Taiwan, with nuclear North Korea totally by its side. US has therefore been totally caught off-guarded! Not surprisingly US has taken to a soft-tone, as its Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who always had a hard-nose for China, almost with a lump in his mouth, contended before US Senate that China has not ‘crossed that line’ yet, informed Al Arabiya 5 on March 22. But, the developing flashpoint between China and Russia is South China Sea as China has accused the presence of USS Milius Warship as an incursion in Chinese waters. This has taken the tensions again to the next higher level. China has warned US.
How India is to streamline its strategy in the wake of Russia-China coming together, and India going by the US side, particularly if anything escalates in the Himalayas between China and India, is to be seen. Perhaps, as the geo-politics suggest, Russia will go by the side of China. Will then US provide the nuclear fuel to India to arm against China? To maintain for the balance? How will Russia react to that is all yet to be deciphered?
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The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international politics.