By Ahmad Al-Khaled
Quick summary of the event
Friday evening around 8:00 PM Moscow is about to witness one of the biggest terror attacks in its history. At that time a group of 5 men were about to rain fire on one of the major entertainment centres just outside the capital Crocus City Hall. Notably the arena itself has around 9500 seats and it was just half an hour before a family friendly music concert. The group arrived in a white car and stopped near the main entrance. 3 gunmen bursted out of the car firing from the street at the guards through the glass doors of the City Hall, one terrorist was following them with a backpack full of ammo and another one was armed with explosives ready to complete a special task. The guards were not much of a threat since they were armed with taser guns and rubber bats. People, who have not yet entered the arena started to panic and ran into separate directions trying the escape the wrath of the terrorists, others were already took their seats in the arena and thought gunshots were part of spectacle. However the spectacle turned into a nightmare as soon as the the gunmen entered. Civilians were rushing towards the fire exits on each side of the stage while the terrorist were standing at the entrance opposite the stage firing at any moving target. One of the fighters with the explosives sets the arena on fire to solidify their terrorist efforts making sure the wounded and the innocent lives, who were hiding would suffocate in smoke or die in fire. Every single exit of the Crocus Hall was crowded with people trying to escape, people were jumping over dead bodies. In the end, terrorists decided to get lost in the chaos filled crowd, snack out of the centre unnoticed and drove off in a white car. It was a preplanned and determined terror attack but who is behind it?
ISIS
The attack was carried out and planned by ISIS is one of the most popular theories. First of all the ISIS news agency Amaq has published multiple statements claiming responsibility for the Moscow terror attack, later on it published several POV videos from one of the terrorists. Furthermore all of them are from Tajikistan and Muslim. During the interrogation of one of the escaped fighters he mentioned the admin of one the religious groups in Telegram,which he regularly read, contacted him a month ago and offered him this job for around $5000. He claimed the admin set up the weapons arms stash and specified the location. At a first glance it would seem to be a case closed situation but a few discrepancies appear as soon as the information check is done. The first statement made by Amaq is outdated. The agency hasn’t used this format since 2018, which is very dubious because the only logical explanation would be the journalists were in a rush to publish it but if they planned the attack they would have prepared a statement beforehand using the new version (another example). Also this statement started to spread from Telegram. Usually when Amaq makes a statement the screenshots appear on X first. For the past decade the influence and the number of ISIS fighters have decreased significantly due to World’s battle against terrorism (Syrian War/African conflicts), which resulted in the organisation’s efforts to take responsibility for the attacks IS hasn’t committed in order to keep their fierce reputation. Islamic radicals would usually exploit suicide fighters for this sort of operations. It takes too much resources and preparation. If all 4 of these men planted a bomb it would have done more damage also. Evidently the operation, which lasted 15 minutes and resulted in 137 dead and 145 wounded has to be planned out to a dot, which is not characteristic to an IS attack.
CIA/MI6
The West’s powerful security services pulling the strings over Tajiki fighters is another popular theory. These agencies are known to have wide range of tools and they are more than capable to guide these fighters to weapon dumps, drawing out a plan for a terrorist attack. This theory became popular due to US and UK embassies in Russia making an security alert on the march 7 about terrorist threats. Evidently the security services were aware of the situation but did not provide details to the Russian government. Ultimately if these agencies were carrying out this operation it would be hard to find traces of their involvement therefore apart from these two facts there is not weight behind this theory. They have capacity, capabilities and motive to carry out the attack but they have not been caught red handed.
FSB
Some have speculated Russia itself could have carried out the attack. The analogy of the apartment building bombing in Moscow, which was allegedly used to start Chechen war, is used. This theory mostly holds on Russian elites’ aspiration to get more national support for the Ukrainian conflict. However the bombing of apartment building has not been proven to be organised directly by FSB and the motive itself is not a necessary mean because Putin has already won the election, nor does he have much opposition, since Navalny died and unsympathetic citizens have left the country at the start of the Ukrainian conflict.
GUR
Out of previously mentioned hypothesis the involvement of GUR is the most logical. They are highly motivated to spread chaos within Russia due to their 2 year ongoing conflict. The gunmen were detained while they were moving towards the Ukrainian border and also other assassination attempts i.e Daria Dugina and Vladlen Tatarsky carried out by Ukrainian special services were done through social media. They would get in touch with marginal personality or as the special services like to call them “useful idiots” and take their time recruiting them. After a certain period of brainwashing the person becomes an asset which can be used to plant a bomb or commit a terror act. Ukraine use the same scheme multiple times. Furthermore the money, which was offered to terrorists $5000 would fit Ukraine perfectly since bigger agencies would offer a lot more money for this kind of operation. The head of GUR Budanov after the incident stated “We killed Russians and we will kill more Russians in anyway possible” hints at their possible involvement as well. President Zelesnksy’s sorrow-less statement shows the elite’s aspiration to kill Russians regardless the means and brutality. However GUR’s capabilities usually would be lacking for this attack to take place but then again they might have gotten some assistance.
It’s hard to know who is exactly behind this cruel attack, since special services do not leave vivid traces and IS being too eager to take the blame for it. It could well be a mixture of multiple theories. Each one has logical base, most believable is ISIS radicals were the ones to pull the trigger, however the organisation of such operation has to be done from outside by a more competent body, hence the discrepancies between usual ISIS attack and the latest one.