Inflation data, crude price to drive equities next week (Market Outlook)

By Rituraj Baruah,

Mumbai : Macro-economic indicators such as inflation, factory output as well as global crude oil prices will dictate the stock market trend next week, analysts said.

A string of assembly elections, starting November 12, will also drive investor sentiments after range-bound movement the previous week.

The government will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for October next week.

Retail inflation for September was at 3.77 per cent, up from 3.69 in August. The wholesale inflation rose to 5.13 per cent in September, from 4.53 per cent in August.

Assembly elections kickstart with the first phase of elections in Chhattisgarh on Monday, November 12. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram go to polls this month and the next to reconstitute their respective assemblies.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rules Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and a return to power in these states will bolster Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances of winning next year’s general election.

Also, crude oil prices, which have eased recently, would guide the equity market next week, analysts said.

In the week ended November 9, crude prices fell significantly from their recent highs. Brent crude oil is currently hovering around $70 per barrel, compared to $86 in early October.

India imports about 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, and a spike in global rates triggers inflation concerns in Asia’s third-largest economy.

Strength of the rupee against the dollar would also be a key factor. On Friday, November 9, the Indian currency closed at 72.49 per dollar after logging a single-day gain of 51 paise. It had closed at 72.44 the previous week.

In a holiday-truncated week, the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex gained 146.9 points, or 0.41 per cent, to close at 35,158.55 on Friday.

Similarly, the Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) advanced 32 points, or 0.30 per cent, to settle at 10,585.20.

The markets were shut on Thursday on the occasion of “Laxmi Pujan”. On Diwali the previous day, the BSE and the NSE conducted a special “Muhurat” trading between 5.30 p.m. and 6.30 p.m.

The provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrips worth Rs 157.79 crore in the week ended November 9.

The domestic institutional investors sold Rs 813.42-crore stocks in the past week.

The Nifty is expected to face resistance at 10,755, while support is seen at 10,444, said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Reseach at HDFC Securities.

(Rituraj Baruah can be contacted at )


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