Q4 results, macro-data to dictate equity indices trend (Market Outlook)


By Rohit Vaid,

Mumbai : Macro-economic data points, coupled with fourth quarter (Q4) earning results, are expected to influence the Indian equity markets during the upcoming truncated week.

According to market observers, the US Fed’s open market committee meet along with the trajectory of global crude oil prices and the rupee’s movement against the US dollar can trigger volatility during the week’s trade sessions.

“The earnings momentum would again be critical since HDFC, Kotak Bank and Dabur will be releasing their numbers. For PSU and other banks, the key question is whether the peak in NPA (non-performing assets) reporting cycle is near,” Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

Companies like HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HCL Technologies, Hero MotoCorp, Interglobe Aviation, Marico, Welspun Corp and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone are expected to announce their Q4 earning results next week.

“Earnings and (the Karnataka) election will be the main triggers for the market while investors will have to keep an eye on domestic headwinds like rise in oil price and rupee movement,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

“On the other hand, the earnings season has started on a positive note led by private sector banks and IT companies. Global market sentiment will be based on the outcome of two-day FOMC meet which is scheduled to start from May 1.”

Apart from Q4 results, investors will look out for upcoming macro-economic data points such as the eight core industries’ (ECI) output, the country’s fiscal deficit numbers and PMI manufacturing and services’ figures which will be released during the week starting April 30.

“Next week, the fiscal deficit for the full financial year would be available and the data would be scrutinised in detail for any slippages, especially in the month of March,” Nevgi said.

“The PMI would be tracked, too, for the economic progress. Crude prices would be tracked closely for any spurt.”

Nevgi added that DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have supported the market as they remained net buyers, whereas FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been net sellers since April 13.

The provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that during last week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 3,060.41 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 2,649.61 crore.

In terms of currency, the rupee weakened by 54 paise to close at 66.67 against the dollar on last Friday.

On technical charts, the underlying trend for the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) Nifty remains bullish.

“Technically, the near-term trend of Nifty is positive and one may expect further upside in the early part of next week. Nifty could face resistance at the 10,750-10,800 band for the next week,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

Last week, healthy Q4 earnings lifted the benchmark equity indices as they settled at their highest closing levels in over three months.

On a weekly basis, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) rose by 554.12 points or 1.61 per cent to close at 34,969.70 points.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 made gains during the week ended April 27. It closed trade at 10,692.30 points — up 128.25 points or 1.21 per cent from its previous week’s close.

The Indian equity indices will remain closed on Tuesday to observe Maharashtra Day.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in )



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